2022 midterm elections did not go well for the GOP but there was one interesting exception. Michele Pena, a Republican candidate in Arizona, secured an unexpected victory and became a member of the Arizona House of Representatives in the predominantly Hispanic and Democratic-leaning 23rd district near the Mexican border. Pena, a school volunteer and single mother with no political background, challenged expectations by addressing voters’ concerns about high food and gas prices, job prospects, and school quality, rather than focusing on minority rights issues. This victory highlights a trend of growing Hispanic support for Republican candidates, particularly evident in battleground states like Arizona.
In the 2020 election, Trump’s share of Hispanic voters increased by 8 percentage points nationally, reaching 36%. Recent surveys indicate Trump narrowly leading Biden among Hispanic adults. Republicans have strategically targeted Hispanic voters with initiatives such as opening Hispanic community centers, running Spanish-language ads, and promoting legislation, like the “Tamale bill,” aimed at appealing to working-class Hispanics. Pena’s grassroots campaign involved door-knocking in working-class neighborhoods and emphasizing school improvement, lower prices, and family values.
The shift in Hispanic voter allegiance poses a challenge for Democrats, who traditionally rely on Hispanic support. Some analysts argue that Democrats have focused too much on issues like voting rights, overlooking concerns about rising prices. As the 2024 election approaches, both parties are intensifying efforts to secure Hispanic votes, with Trump focusing on the economy, crime, and border security. The outcome in swing states with significant Hispanic populations, such as Arizona, could significantly impact the election.
