Russia is probably trying to create a migrant crisis in Finland the same way Belarussia did to Poland in 2022 or Turkey did to Greece and the rest of Europe in 2015-2016.
According to an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report released yesterday, November 20th, Russia seems to be employing a “known hybrid warfare tactic” by potentially creating a migrant crisis on its border with Finland. Finland closed four border checkpoints on its southeastern border with Russia, and the Finnish Border Guard reported around 300 asylum seekers, primarily from Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Syria, arriving at the Finnish border from Russia since September 2023. There has been a notable increase in migrant crossings, with 89 recorded between November 7th and 14th, compared to 91 from mid-July to mid-November.
Dozens of migrants gathered at closed Finnish border crossings in sub-zero temperatures (image), prompting the Finnish authorities to consider closing the entire border with Russia. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo suggested that “foreign authorities or other actors” may be involved in facilitating illegal border crossings. The ISW expressed skepticism that migrants would willingly stay at the Finnish border in freezing conditions and suggested Russian involvement in the situation.
Tensions between Finland and Russia have escalated since Finland’s NATO membership decision in April 2023, a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
