Intelligence suggests Iran had been sending weapons to Hamas for weeks before the October 7th attack. Other intelligence suggests Iranian government was surprised to find out Hamas had attacked. It’s too soon for fog of war…
Long story short: The attack took place either ahead of schedule or some members of the Iranian government didn’t know anything about the attack.
On Monday, October 9th, it was almost common knowledge: Over the course of several weeks, Iran played a significant role in orchestrating the attack against Israel. We even had a date: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gave the ultimate approval for this operation in Beirut on Monday, October 2nd. This suggests a complex and premeditated plan, potentially involving multiple actors and locations, with the IRGC’s final authorization serving as a critical development in the operation’s execution.
But today, on Wednesday, October 11th, it was revealed by the U.S. government that senior Iranian government officials were seemingly taken aback by the violent Hamas attack on Israel. This information raises uncertainty about Iran’s direct involvement in planning or approving the operation. U.S. intelligence community has not yet reached a definitive conclusion regarding Iran’s role and is actively seeking more evidence. This development came as a surprise to both Israel and the United States, highlighting the complex nature of the situation.
