In August, on the eve of the first Republican presidential primary debate, Donald Trump led the GOP field with 55.4% in the Real Clear Politics’ national average. As of the latest debate in Alabama, he maintained his lead at 61%. This level of support at this stage in a presidential campaign is unprecedented and strongly indicates a potential nomination. The GOP debates proved beneficial for Trump, who abstained from participating, and for Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina Gov., who enhanced her national standing.
The fourth debate showcased loose alliances, with Chris Christie defending Haley against Vivek Ramaswamy’s criticisms. It became a clash between the pre-Trump and post-Trump GOP, with alliances and disagreements highlighting the party’s internal dynamics. DeSantis and Ramaswamy attacked Haley, reflecting the ongoing struggle within the party. Looking ahead, the GOP landscape envisions different scenarios. Haley aims for a surprise second-place finish in Iowa, using it as momentum for subsequent states. DeSantis seeks a surprise win in Iowa to demonstrate Trump’s vulnerability. Trump, confident with a fragmented field, anticipates strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Beyond the primaries, Trump’s position is strengthened by President Biden’s declining approval ratings. Biden faces challenges with key demographics and eroding support from his 2020 coalition. The president’s slogan, “it could be worse,” lacks visionary appeal. As the Iowa caucuses approach, Trump remains the GOP favorite, with potential challenges for Biden if third-party candidates gain traction. However, Trump’s legal issues could impact his chances. Overall, the election year seems poised for dissatisfaction with a 2020 rematch.
