“Potential successors to Putin in Russian politics and the associated uncertainty.”
Vladimir Putin’s public image has evolved significantly over the years. While he was once known for engaging in attention-grabbing stunts to exhibit his physical vigor, such as hugging a polar bear or riding a horse bare-chested in the mountains, more than a decade has passed since those displays. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further chipped away at his strongman image, leading to questions about his future in Russian politics.
Despite these shifts in public perception, Putin is widely expected to throw his hat in the ring for another term when Russia holds its presidential elections in March. He has managed to alter the constitution, effectively allowing him the opportunity to run for two more six-year terms, extending his rule even further. However, the fact that Putin is now 71 years old makes his health and ability to continue leading Russia without interruption subjects of concern.
Russia’s political system operates differently from many Western democracies. There are no primary elections, and political parties individually select their candidates, subsequently presenting them to the electorate. In the event of Putin’s absence from the political landscape, the loyalist United Russia party may choose to put forth a candidate, although the procedure for their selection remains unestablished. Putin’s decision to run as an independent in 2018 has added an element of unpredictability to the process of identifying a potential replacement.
In the absence of Putin, several potential successors have been considered. Dmitry Medvedev, who served as Putin’s surrogate and president in 2008 when Putin couldn’t seek reelection due to term limits, is one such candidate. However, during his presidency, Medvedev was widely perceived as secondary to Putin, who took on the role of prime minister and effectively continued leading the country. Medvedev’s more recent outspoken support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine has garnered attention and support from Russian nationalists. Still, he may face criticism for his perceived accommodation of the United States during the Obama administration’s “reset” initiative and allegations of corruption and extravagant living.
Another potential successor, Alexey Dyumin, while not having broad public visibility, has been rumored as a possible successor to Putin for several years. His close relationship with Putin, including serving as his bodyguard, has fueled such speculations. Dyumin came to public notice with a dramatic story about saving Putin from a bear, adding an aura of valor and success related to his involvement in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. This stark contrast to the ongoing struggles and failures of the current war in Ukraine could make Dyumin an attractive candidate.
If visuals and accomplishments play a substantial role in a Russian presidential race, Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow since 2010, possesses one of the strongest portfolios. Under his leadership, the Russian capital has witnessed remarkable and visible changes. New recreational areas, pedestrian zones, sports facilities, and other amenities have flourished. Electric buses have replaced old, noisy trolleys, new commuter rail lines have reduced traffic congestion, and once-neglected parks have been improved. Sobyanin, however, has drawn criticism for his ban on LGBTQ+ parades in the city, though this stance aligns with the majority view in Russia. Furthermore, his leadership has generally been less flamboyant and divisive compared to his predecessor, Yuri Luzhkov.
Mikhail Mishustin, Russia’s prime minister since 2020, has flown somewhat under the radar, with his tenure sparking relatively little excitement or attention. However, he holds a significant advantage: if Putin were to pass away or become unable to fulfill his presidential duties before the election, Mishustin would assume the role of acting president, mirroring Putin’s path to power in 1999. Mishustin, known as a quiet technocrat, had a successful tenure as the head of the national tax service. As prime minister, he has received approval ratings of up to 70% for overseeing the administration and ministries. Despite some speculation that he was caught off guard by Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, Mishustin has remained steadfast in carrying out his responsibilities.
Finally, Nikolai Patrushev stands out for his parallels with Putin. Born in Leningrad just 10 months apart from Putin, Patrushev took over as the head of the Federal Security Service, the primary KGB successor agency, in 1999 when Putin became prime minister. Currently serving as the head of the national security council, Patrushev often echoes and sometimes amplifies Putin’s hawkish views and his adversarial stance toward the West. Although he initially hesitated to recognize the independence of the rebel leadership in Ukraine’s separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which occurred shortly before the invasion, he later became a vocal advocate for the war. Patrushev argued that Russia needed to eliminate what he called “neo-Nazis” at its doorstep and viewed Ukraine’s Western orientation as a significant security threat. Additionally, he has criticized the perceived infiltration of Western neo-liberal ideas into Russia while advocating for the preservation of the country’s traditions, aligning his philosophical stance with that of Putin.
In conclusion, the future of Russia’s leadership remains uncertain, and the choice of Putin’s successor could have profound implications for the country’s direction in the coming years.
