In the long run, two ethnically homogeneous states in Middle East, one Jewish and one Arab, is probably the only relatively peaceful solution. We are not referring to the so-called Lieberman Plan (territories exchange) or to Netanyahu’s “vision for a new Middle East” but to a full-blown population exchange.
IT’S HAPPENED BEFORE: THE 1923 TREATY OF LAUSANNE
The Treaty of Lausanne, signed in 1923, is an important international agreement for several reasons:
- It ended a great war in a whole region (rather, THE Great War) by defining a new, more stable status quo: The Treaty of Lausanne was one of the peace treaties that officially ended World War I for the Ottoman Empire. It recognized a new entity, the Republic of Turkiye, as the successor state to the Ottoman Empire. This entity immediately engaged in international diplomacy and established itself as a modern secular (or at least non-theocratic) nation-state.
- It redefined borders along more sensible geopolitical lines: The partitioning of the former Ottoman Empire in 1918 was a temporary, unstable solution to the complex Eastern Question (imagine something like the clusterf@ck that is the Middle East right now TIMES TEN AND LASTING FOR TWO CENTURIES). Foreign intervention in historic Ottoman lands culminated in the Greco – Turkish war of 1919-1922 but, after the signing of the Treaty, this intervention came to a permanent end. More importantly, Greece had to abandon its Greater Greece plan, which included the reconquista and rechristianization of Constantinople.
- It made irredentist revisionism practically impossible: Greco-Turkish conflict in no trivial matter. For 200 years, these nations have been antagonizing with each other in almost everything, from the origins of gyro to the sovereignty of a couple of very small, rocky islands, which almost triggered a war between them. Nevertheless, there hasn’t been a major war between them for 100 years now. How did the Treaty of Lausanne accomplish that small miracle? By enforcing (almost all) Christians of Turkey to resettle in Greece and (almost all) Muslim of Greece to resettle in Turkey.
IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN
A deal to end or at least seriously de-escalate the Israeli – Palestinian conflict could follow a pattern similar to that of the Treaty of Lausanne:
- An end of an 80-year-old series of wars by shaping two viable states: The one is Israel of course. The other is a fully-independent and globally recognized State of Palestine.
- A sensible change of borders: In 1947, the British Empire left a mess in Middle East. Arab intervention in the region culminated in the Arab – Israeli wars of 1947, 1967, and 1973. The clumsy proposals that followed these wars were not enough to prevent Palestinian insurrections (Intifadas), the most recent of which took place in October 7, 2023. Harsh reality dictates that a) Palestinian territories (Gaza Strip and West Bank) must communicate with each other without Israeli intervention, b) Jerusalem must become fully Israeli because it cannot be a divided capital like Berlin or Nicosia! Palestinians will hate it but the Whole Holy City must inevitably become part of one and only state if it is to know peace at last…
- A population exchange, accompanied by minor territorial changes other than a full Israeli Jerusalem: All Jews in Israel, all Muslims in Palestine. It’s simple and it’s relatively more humanitarian than eternal war.
Bloody, long-term conflicts don’t end by invoking abstract moral values. Painful concessions must be made be both sides. Utter destruction of one side by the other is nothing but a wild dream of some war-mongering people.
