Geopolitical tectonic plates are moving faster than that we’ve been used to for many years. One of these plates is Russia, whose “collision” with the West has raised many concerns on both sides. To get a better insight on Russia’s grand strategy, read the following summary of an excellent analysis authored in 2017 by Dmitri Trenin, then Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center (it was shut down by the Russian government in 2022), and posted at Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD). The original, full text can be retrieved here.
In 2014, Russia experienced a significant shift in its foreign policy. The deterioration of its relations with the West, particularly over the Ukraine crisis, prompted Moscow to reevaluate its traditional foreign policy concepts. The previous concepts, which focused on integrating with the wider West and reuniting former Soviet republics with Russia, were essentially abandoned. Instead, Russia began embracing a new geopolitical vision known as “Grand Eurasia. This new approach views Eurasia as a whole, encompassing the entire landmass of the largest continent on Earth, from Korea to Portugal, and from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean. Russia is no longer actively seeking integration with the West, nor is it pursuing the reintegration of former Soviet states. Instead, it is positioning itself as a standalone power in the north-central region of Eurasia. The “Grand Eurasia” strategy calls for Moscow to become a vantage point for this vast geopolitical construct. It focuses on outreach to Asian partners, particularly China, within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, aiming to create a continental order free from U.S. dominance. The strategy emphasizes patience toward Western Europe and envisions Russia as a lone great power in a global world.
Russia’s previous foreign policy objectives of integrating with the West and reuniting former Soviet republics have largely failed. The Ukraine crisis was a turning point in this regard, as it not only strained Russia’s relations with the West but also made reintegration of former Soviet states less feasible. The relationship with China, once seen as a potential solution, has developed into a mutually beneficial partnership rather than Russia becoming subservient to China. Russia and China’s cooperation spans multiple areas, including energy, military technology, and infrastructure projects.
Russia’s pivot toward “Grand Eurasia” has its challenges. Confrontation with the U.S. and estrangement from Western Europe pose risks. However, the strategy seeks to position Russia as a major player in the vast Eurasian continent. It emphasizes cooperation and engagement with Asian partners, including China and India, and the creation of regional institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Rehabilitating relations with Europe is also crucial, but it’s challenging due to ongoing tensions, particularly stemming from the Ukraine crisis. To succeed in this strategy, Russia must focus on building confidence, preventing incidents that could lead to conflict [that did not age well], and working on measures to foster cooperation.
